Two dimensions were palpable in the Quad meeting in Tokyo: First, India’s growing influence and its centrality in the group and second, the Quad is emerging as a permanent structure in the Indo-Pacific. India’s increasing sway resulted in moderating the Joint Statement on Ukraine-Russia conflict and dilution of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and new initiatives have been taken by the group that places it on a solid foundation.
A number of decisions/statements suggest the members of the Quad consider that India is pivotal for achieving the objectives of the Quad, hence they accommodated India’s concerns. First, though the US pulled no punches against Russia and Joe Biden in his statement termed the Russian invasion as “brutal and unjustified”, this did not find any place in the Joint Statement. It mentioned only that “members discussed respective responses to the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing tragic humanitarian crisis, and assessed its implications for the Indo-Pacific.”
Second, the main tenor of the Joint Statement focused on the Indo-Pacific issues. It stated “that the Quad is a force for good, committed to bringing tangible benefits to the region.” This reverberated PM Modi’s words: ‘The objective of the Quad is to do global good.” Indian leaders have been pushing this view at various international and bilateral forums.
Third, there was stress on the non-acceptability of unilateral attempts to change the status quo- a term used for the Chinese efforts at the LAC and the South China Sea (SCS). Without naming China, the statement said the members “strongly oppose any coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area, such as the militarization of disputed features, the dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia, and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities.” India has been opposing the Chinese incursions into EEZs of other countries and safeguarding its interests in the SCS is included in the Indian Naval Doctrine. Besides, India’s oil exploration activities were objected by China in the past.
Fourth, importantly terrorism was condemned in all forms-an Indian objective. It specifically condemned the 26/11 and Pathankot attacks sponsored by Pakistan. It also took notice of about the concerns of the growth of terrorism in Afghanistan and underscored the importance of UNSC Resolution 2593 (2021). The Joint Statement also stressed the need for upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations. This recommendation would add to the problems of Pakistan, which it is under the observation of this international body.
Fifth, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was modified to accommodate India’s views. Instead of directly launching, it now focuses on consultations on the lines of India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) on its four pillars. This change has resulted in the acceptance of IPEF by 13 countries including India. India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has aptly put its importance in an article in the Hindustan Times: “The launching of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is expected to advance common interests in trade, supply chains, infrastructure, and finance.”
While PM Modi’s emphasis on neutrality on the issue of Russia was expected, the change in the US approach is noteworthy. From “shaky” position of India and that “there would be consequences” for not condemning Russia, now Biden desires ‘the US-India relations to be closest on earth.’ India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra remarked that there was good appreciation of India’s position on the issue. Biden also praised PM Modi’s handling of Covid and contrasted it with the Chinese failure. He also highlighted that the Vaccine Maitri scheme helped several countries in their fight against the pandemic. The newly elected PM of Australia Anthony Albanese also praised India’s contribution stating that ‘the vaccines supplied by India to other countries made a difference on the ground.’ Similarly, the Japanese PM also complimented India’s role. The statements and decisions in the Quad Summit indicate that all members accept India’s key role in achieving the objective of free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
The Tokyo Summit also indicates that the Quad has taken the shape of a permanent structure in the period of fast shifting of strategic equations among the international players. And importantly in the words of Jaishankar, ‘while India has overcome the hesitations of history, it also meant not giving other countries a veto on our choices’. That this collaboration would not affect India’s national interests is quite comforting and also indicates India’s rising stature.
An underlying objective that remains significant is to check the Chinese expansion. An important step taken in this context is to promote debt sustainability and transparency, including through the Quad Debt Management Resource Portal. A commitment to extend more than $ 50 bn of infrastructure assistance and investment over the next five years has been made. The Quad fund will be spent on creation of demand-driven infrastructure in the region. Obviously, this step is aimed at countering the Chinese debt trap scheme under its BRI.
However, now Quad’s agenda has broadened and covers more aspects needed for the economic development of the region. Besides the above-mentioned infrastructure to save the countries from becoming a victim of the BRI, four additional steps deserve attention. First, arrangements have been made to mitigate problems arising from the natural disasters. According to the US White House statement, Quad would also work with the New-Delhi-based Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), a new initiative designed to work with regional partners to respond to humanitarian and natural disasters and combat illegal fishing. It will cooperate with the Indo-Pacific nations and regional information fusion centres in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.
Second step is the creation of the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP). This includes ongoing activities under the Quad Climate Working Group on green shipping and ports, clean hydrogen and clean energy supply chains.
Third step is the building of the capabilities of the countries in the domain of cyber security under the Quad cybersecurity Partnership programme. An understanding on 5G supplier diversification and Open-RAN will contribute to secure telecommunications in the region.
Fourth, a STEM Fellowship establishes the educational connection between the member nations.
The data satellite portal connects all the members in space, which had been introduced earlier. The big picture that emerges is that the Quad has assumed the shape of a permanent structure to ensure peace and stability in the region, which is facing the increasing Chinese aggressiveness after the latter has discarded the mask of its peaceful rise. And India is not only a part of this mechanism but has a leading role in it. In essence, the Quad is geared to change the environment that allows coercion of smaller countries and obstructs economic development by paving the way for rule-based order for security and trade development for the benefit of all in the region. It must be added that it needs greater support from the countries in the region for achieving the full potentials of the combined strength of all. Yes, the current environment is putting the Indian diplomatic skills to test: it has to maintain good relations with US, EU and Russia and manage China to restrain it from indulging in aggressive acts at the LAC and contain its undesirable acts in the SCS and Indian Ocean.
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